Kongres AS tidak Mengesampingkan Veto Obama atas Kesepakatan Nuklir dengan Iran

1760134TEHRAN, Selasa, 7/7/2015 (MNA) —. Seorang pakar di AS menilai bahwa penandatanganan kesepakatan nuklir Iran (yang berlangsung di Vienna, Austria pada Selasa, 14/7/2015) akan menjadi PR berat bagi Presiden AS periode berikutnya.

Pakar  tersebut adalah Matthew Bunn, seorang profesor yang pernah menjadi penasehat di Gedung Putih untuk Kebijakan Sains dan Teknologi. Dalam wawancara eksklusifnya dengan Mehr News (Iran), ia mengungkapkan, mayoritas anggota Kongres dari Partai Republik akan menolak kesepakatan nuklir  Iran, tetapi hal itu tidak akan mampu membendung kekuatan veto Presiden Obama.

Berikut ini adalah teks lengkap dari wawancara termaksud :

Apakah  Kongres akan membatalkan kesepakatan nuklir Iran?

Bila hasil kesepakatan tersebut disampaikan kepada Kongres, baik Senat maupun DPR (di mana keduanya didominasi oleh Republik), pasti akan mendapatkan penentangan. Namun, Presiden Obama kemungkinan besar akan memveto resolusi penentangan tersebut karena pemerintahannya mengharapkan Iran menyepakati perjanjian yang cukup kuat, dan agar para  penentangnya tidak akan mampu mendapatkan 2/3 suara yang diperlukan untuk membendung veto (veto Obama).

Karena kemungkinan dijatuhkannya veto itu, saya percaya ada kebutuhan Iran untuk menaati  persyaratan/ketentuan, yang akan membantu untuk membangun dukungan di Kongres, termasuk soal transparansi dan inspeksi (aktivitas) nuklir yang lebih luas.

Hanya dengan jalan kesepakatan itulah yang bisa memberikan pembebasan substansial (bagi Iran) dari sanksi AS.

Jika Kongres membatalkan kesepakatan nuklir Iran, apa reaksi di dalam negeri maupun luar negeri?  Bagaimana hal itu memengaruhi posisi Partai Republik dalam pemilihan presiden 2016 nanti?

Para calon presiden dari Partai Republik tentu akan memperjuangkan penentangan kesepakatan nuklir Iran, dan terus mengkritiknya sebagai sebuah contoh kelemahan kebijakan luar negeri Presiden Obama. Tetapi, bila kesepakatan tersebut dapat disempurnakan dan diterapkan sebelum masa jabatan presiden berikutnya — termasuk pula diterbitkannya resolusi Dewan Keamanan PBB yang mencabut sanksi PBB atas Iran — maka akan sulit (meski bukan tidak mungkin) bagi presiden periode nanti, baik dari Partai Demokrat ataupun Partai Republik, untuk mengabaikan persetujuan/kesepakatan tersebut.

Jika Kongres membatalkan kesepakatan tersebut, bagaimana nasib (masa depan) kesepakatan itu? 

Kemungkinan besar  Kongres akan menentang kesepakatan itu, tetapi Obama juga dapat saja memveto penentangan tersebut.  Jika para penentang yang ada di Kongres tidak berhasil meraih 2/3 suara utuh yang diperlukan untuk menggagalkan veto, maka (hasil) kesepakatan nuklir Iran akan terus berlaku.  Sebaliknya, bila para penentang itu mampu mengumpulkan 2/3 suara untuk membendung veto, maka kemudian Amerika Serikat tidak dapat lagi berpartisipasi dalam kesepakatan tersebut; dan ini berarti akan sangat sulit untuk mencegah runtuhnya kesepakatan yang sudah ditandatangani.

Hal dilematis bagi presiden berikutnya, bila ia dari Partai Republik — yang tidak mendukung kesepakatan nuklir Iran — tentu akan sulit baginya untuk menarik diri dari kesepakatan.  Namun, apa yang akan terjadi bila muncul pembatalan kesepakatan; apakah kemudian AS berhak menuding Iran tidak memenuhi semua kewajibannya, atau kah justru Iran lah yang akan  menuding AS sebagai pelanggar atas semua hal yang telah dijanjikannya?  Perjanjian/kesepakatan tersebut akan menjadi rumit bila para pengambil kebijakan di Iran dan AS terus saling curiga, dan bahwa pengingkaran kesepakatan sering muncul dalam perjanjian-perjanjian nuklir lainnya. Oleh karena itu, kedua belah pihak harus bekerja keras untuk terus menyelesaikan perselisihan seraya mempertahankan kesepakatan (yang sudah ditandatangani). Tetapi bila ada presiden AS (atau pengambil keputusan di Iran) yang menentang kesepakatan tersebut, maka kerja keras tidak akan membuahkan hasil dan kesepakatan yang sudah dicapai akan berantakan.

Pada prinsipnya saya percaya ada kepentingan nasional Iran untuk menyetujui perjanjian yang kuat dan mewujudkannya secara bersungguh-sungguh untuk mendapatkan bantuan yang lebih luas dari AS dan Eropa, serta pencabutan sanksi.

Kesepakatan nuklir Iran akan disahkan sebagai sebuah resolusi dalam Bab 7 Piagam PBB. Apa implikasi hukumnya bagi kedua belah pihak?

Sebuah resolusi yang baru akan mencabut/membatalkan sanksi PBB yang pernah diberlakukan terkait dengan aktivitas nuklir Iran. Dan hal itu kemungkinan secara legal mengharuskan Iran untuk memenuhi langkah-langkah yang disyaratkan dalam kesepakatan. Dalam negosiasi antara Iran dan Kelompok 5 + 1, resolusi spesifik PBB seperti itu sudah banyak dibahas. [**]

_________________________________

Pewawancara :  Javad Heirania (Mehr News Agency)

Matthew Bunn adalah Profesor pada  “John F. Kennedy School of Government” Universitas Harvard. Sebelum bertugas di Harvard, Bunn menjabat sebagai penasehat di Gedung Putih pada Kantor Kebijakan Sains dan Teknologi, direktur studi pada “National Academy of Sciences”, dan editor pada “Arms Control Today”.

Diterjemahkan dan diedit dari Mehr News Agency (dengan ID Berita: 2853939 – Selasa, 7 Juli 2015 – 15:36) oleh Wa Ode Zainab Zilullah Toresano (www.sorotparlemen.com – Ahad, 26/7/2015).

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